在南非,香烟价格对戒烟的影响使用持续时间分析: 1970-2017年
Nicole Vellios1, Corne van Walbeek1, G Emmanuel Guindon2
1Research Unit on the Economics of Excisable Products, School of Economics, University of Cape Town, South Africa.
Social science & medicine (1982)
|February 9, 2025
概括
较高的香烟价格与南非戒烟率的增加有关. 10%的价格上可能会使戒烟率高达7.9%,这表明税收上可以帮助戒烟的努力.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 南非面临着高的吸烟率和戒烟意图.
- 关于香烟需求价格弹性的证据是混合的,特别是在低收入和中等收入国家.
- 过去的税收和行业价格上提供了一个独特的研究背景.
研究的目的:
- 研究南非吸烟者中香烟价格与戒烟决策之间的关联.
- 提供关于价格上作为中等收入国家的烟草控制战略有效性的证据.
主要方法:
- 利用了国家收入动态研究 (NIDS) 的五个波 (2008-2017) 的数据.
- 在自我报告的吸烟史 (开始和戒烟年龄) 上使用持续时间分析技术.
- 将个人吸烟数据与覆盖1970-2017年的月度香烟价格数据进行了匹配.
主要成果:
- 香烟价格上10%与戒烟率上5.8-7.9%有关.
- 这些发现表明,在南非背景下,戒烟的价格反应显著.
- 根据分析中使用的特定模型规格,结果略有变化.
结论:
- 增加对香烟的消费税高于通货膨胀率可能会促进南非的戒烟.
- 打击非法卷烟贸易的同时措施对于基于税收的戒烟战略的成功至关重要.
- 价格干预仍然是南非烟草控制的可行和潜在有效工具.
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