机器学习预后模型的开发,用于表皮卵巢癌患者的整体生存:基于SEER的研究
Jianing Fan1, Yu Jiang1, Xinyan Wang1
1Department of Gynecology and Obstetrics, Women's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing Women and Children's Healthcare Hospital, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.
Expert review of anticancer therapy
|February 9, 2025
概括
渐变增强生存分析 (GBSA) 模型准确地预测卵巢癌的生存率,优于传统的考克斯回归. 这为表皮卵巢癌 (EOC) 预后的明智临床决策提供了宝贵的工具.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 医疗保健中的机器学习
背景情况:
- 表皮卵巢癌 (EOC) 的生存预测仍然是一个挑战.
- 准确的预后模型对于指导临床决策和患者管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和比较机器学习 (ML) 模型,用于预测EOC患者的整体存活率 (OS).
- 确定影响EOC患者结果的关键预后因素.
主要方法:
- 利用了12949名EOC患者的SEER数据库 (2004-2020年) 的数据.
- 开发并比较了ML模型,包括随机生存森林 (RSF),梯度增强生存分析 (GBSA) 和支持矢量机 (SVM) 针对Cox回归.
- 使用AUC,一致性指数 (C指数) 和Brier分数评估模型性能,并进行5倍交叉验证.
主要成果:
- 在EOC中确定了OS的14个独立预后因素.
- 与考克斯模型相比,GBSA模型表现出优异的预测性能 (AUC,C指数,Brier分数).
- SHAP分析强调了FIGO阶段,等级和淋巴结解剖作为GBSA模型中的关键预测因素.
结论:
- 与传统方法相比,GBSA模型为EOC生存预测提供了更高的准确性.
- 这种ML方法为临床医生提供了一种有价值的工具,可以提高预后准确性并为治疗策略提供信息.
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