了解菲律宾经常发生洪水的分布效应
Inga J Sauer1, Brian Walsh2, Katja Frieler1
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Transformation Pathways, 14473 Potsdam, Germany.
iScience
|February 10, 2025
概括
菲律宾经常发生的极端天气事件导致由于不完全恢复而导致40%的消费和福利损失. 中等收入家庭受到影响最大,这凸显了需要考虑累积影响的必要性.
科学领域:
- 减少灾害风险 减少灾害风险
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
- 极端天气的社会经济影响.
背景情况:
- 极端天气事件对减少贫困构成重大威胁.
- 在易受灾害影响的地区,事件之间的恢复时间不足可能会加剧负面影响.
- 缺乏量化方法来评估不完全恢复的累积影响.
研究的目的:
- 量化评估从极端天气事件中不完全恢复的福利影响.
- 分析家庭暴露和收入对菲律宾这些影响的影响.
- 在气候变化下为灾难准备策略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 扩展基于代理的模型来模拟家庭福利.
- 分析了菲律宾2000年至2018年期间的数据.
- 检查累计消费和福祉损失的情况.
主要成果:
- 不完整的恢复使累计消费和福利损失增加了40%.
- 低收入家庭经历了最高的绝对福利损失.
- 中等收入家庭受到不完全恢复的影响最为严重.
结论:
- 当单个事件被单独分析时,反复出现的极端天气事件的累积影响被低估了.
- 对不完整的恢复进行核算对于准确的影响评估和防灾准备至关重要.
- 这些发现与适应气候变化导致极端天气事件频率增加的情况有关.
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