哈萨克斯坦的极端温度事件及其对公共卫生和能源需求的影响
Parya Broomandi1,2,3, Alfrendo Satyanaga1, Mehdi Bagheri2
1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering School of Engineering and Digital Sciences Nazarbayev University Kabanbay Batyr Ave. 53 Astana 010000 Kazakhstan.
Global challenges (Hoboken, NJ)
|February 10, 2025
概括
气候变化正在加剧哈萨克斯坦的热浪,导致死亡率增加和对冷却的能源需求增加. 调整健康战略和转向绿色能源对于减轻这些影响至关重要.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 能源研究 能源研究
背景情况:
- 由于气候变化,极端温度事件,如热浪和寒浪,正在加剧.
- 这些事件极大地挑战了公共卫生系统和能源基础设施.
- 从1959年到2021年,哈萨克斯坦经历了极端温度的显著变化.
研究的目的:
- 分析极端温度事件对哈萨克斯坦公共卫生和能源消耗的影响.
- 为了确定热浪和寒浪发生的区域趋势.
- 评估极端温度,死亡率和能源需求之间的关系.
主要方法:
- 对哈萨克斯坦的历史气象数据 (1959-2021) 的分析.
- 检查与极端温度事件期间死亡率相关的公共卫生记录.
- 评估能源消耗模式,包括加热和冷却度日.
- 估计与用于温度控制的能源生产相关的二氧化碳排放量.
主要成果:
- 热浪趋势在哈萨克斯坦西部和西南部最为明显.
- 寒波的强度有所增加,但它们的频率和数量有所减少.
- 热浪与统计学上显著增加的全因和心血管死亡率有关.
- 能源需求显示冷却需求的增加 (冷却度日) 和供暖需求的减少 (供暖度日).
- 平均总能耗为552千瓦时,平均年产量为8.76千瓦时.
- 平均二氧化碳排放量估计为每千瓦时464公斤,用于供暖和制冷.
结论:
- 气候变化需要积极的公共卫生规划,以应对不断升级的热浪影响.
- 转向可再生能源至关重要,以减少与供暖和制冷相关的环境足迹.
- 了解区域对极端温度的脆弱性,是有效适应战略的关键.
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