在 SEACTR 社区中具有保护意识的 HCV 传播模型
Liangwei Wang1, Fengying Wei1,2,3, Zhen Jin4
1School of Mathematics and Statistics, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou, 350116, Fujian, China.
Infectious Disease Modelling
|February 10, 2025
概括
由于有效的控制措施,福建省的C型肝炎病毒 (HCV) 感染率呈现下降趋势. 未来的预测表明增长缓慢,与国家消除目标保持一致.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 型肝炎病毒 (HCV) 是中国的一个重要传染病,福建省的监测数据显示,从2004年到2022年,感染趋势各不相同.
- 国家控制措施影响了HCV感染率,在COVID-19大流行期间 (2020-2022) 没有实施修改.
研究的目的:
- 分析2004年至2022年福建省C型肝炎病毒 (HCV) 感染的趋势.
- 预测2023年至2035年的HCV感染的未来趋势.
- 评估控制措施对HCV感染量表的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用的SEACTR模型 (易受感染,暴露,急性感染,慢性感染,治疗,恢复) 具有保护意识.
- 采用下一代矩阵和动态分析来计算繁殖数.
- 应用最小平方和欧勒-马鲁雅马方法,以获得最佳匹配和数值模拟.
主要成果:
- 感染HCV的规模主要取决于保护效率和转化率,保护效率是最关键的因素.
- 生殖数量呈现阶段性下降,这意味着福建省的HCV预防和控制取得了成功.
- 未来的预测 (2023-2035) 表明HCV感染的增长缓慢,每月估计有19-109例.
结论:
- 福建省的预防和控制HCV取得了显著的成就,其证据是繁殖数量下降.
- 福建省HCV感染的整体趋势与国家消除疾病的目标保持一致.
- 持续关注保护效率和转化率对于持续控制HCV至关重要.
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