从部分间隔审查的数据中估计每周的时间强度,并应用到警察巡逻计划中的应用
Jiahao Tian1, Michael D Porter1,2
1School of Data Science, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
Journal of applied statistics
|February 10, 2025
概括
准确的犯罪率估计有助于执法部门的资源分配. 这项研究引入了一种新的Poisson回归模型,使用惩罚来改善时间犯罪强度估计,揭示日常犯罪模式.
科学领域:
- 犯罪学 犯罪学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
- 统计建模 统计建模
背景情况:
- 执法机构需要准确的犯罪率估计,以有效管理资源.
- 犯罪数据由于其间隔审查性质,经常带来挑战,使时间分析复杂化.
- 现有的方法可能无法完全捕捉犯罪模式的时间动态.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种准确的方法来估计随时间推移的犯罪强度.
- 为了解决间隔审查的犯罪数据的复杂性.
- 识别具有类似犯罪强度模式的时间集群.
主要方法:
- 该研究将犯罪强度估计作为一个波桑回归问题.
- 预期最大化 (EM) 算法用于参数估计.
- 为了确保时间顺 (一天中的时间,一周中的日期),包含了特殊处罚.
主要成果:
- 拟议的模型可以准确地估计犯罪的时间强度.
- 该方法成功地发现了几天的集群,显示出类似的犯罪强度模式.
- 验证使用来自辛辛那提和达拉斯的模拟和现实犯罪数据进行.
结论:
- 开发的波桑回归方法有效地估计了犯罪率,即使使用了间隔审查数据.
- 该模型识别时间犯罪模式的能力可以为执法策略提供信息.
- 这种方法为预防和减少犯罪提供了有价值的工具.
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