基于CMIP6的未来干旱指数和2021-2060年潜在蒸发透气的全球估计
Robert J Zomer1,2, Jianchu Xu2,3, Donatella Spano1,4,5
1CMCC Foundation -Euro-Mediterranean Center Climate Change, Sassari, Sardinia, Italy.
Open research Europe
|February 10, 2025
概括
本研究介绍了Future_Global_AI_PET数据库,从CMIP6模型中提供潜在蒸发转化率 (PET) 和干旱度指数 (AI) 的全球估计. 该数据库提供了了解未来气候和生态水文影响生态系统的关键数据.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 水文学的水文学
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
背景情况:
- 全球气候模型预测水资源供应和生态系统动态的重大变化.
- 准确估计潜在的蒸发透气 (PET) 和干旱度指数 (AI) 对于评估这些影响至关重要.
- 现有的数据集可能缺乏全面分析所需的分辨率或未来预测.
研究的目的:
- 开发和介绍Future_Global_AI_PET数据库,提供高分辨率的全球PET和AI估计.
- 为多个CMIP6地球系统模型提供数据,跨越历史和未来的时间段,以及共享的社会经济途径 (SSP).
- 通过说明预测的气候和生态水文影响,促进科学和实际应用.
主要方法:
- 利用22个CMIP6地球系统模型,以30秒分辨率生成PET和AI的全球估计.
- 包括两个历史时期 (1960-1990,1970-2000) 和两个未来时期 (2021-2041,2041-2060).
- 开发了三种多模型整体平均值 (所有,多数共识,高风险) 来解释气候模型的不确定性.
主要成果:
- 与气象站数据 (PET:r2=0.72;AI:r2=0.91) 和CRU_TS v4.04数据集 (PET:r2=0.67;AI:r2=0.80) 相比,验证了历史PET和AI估计值.
- 该数据库提供了对近期和中期气候变化的预测.
- 详细说明了对陆地生态系统预测的气候和生态水文影响的详细趋势和幅度.
结论:
- 未来_全球_AI_PET数据库为研究气候变化影响提供了宝贵的资源.
- 高分辨率数据支持与水资源和生态系统管理相关的各种科学和实际应用.
- 该数据库存储在ScienceDB中,全球研究人员可以在线访问.
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