气候变化对墨西哥1980-2017年农业就业的影响
Karla Arlae Sánchez Guijosa1,2, Guillermo Murray-Tortarolo1, Mario Martínez Salgado3
1Instituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas y Sustentabilidad, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), Morelia, Michoacán, Mexico.
PloS one
|February 10, 2025
概括
气候变化对墨西哥的农业就业产生了重大影响. 降水量减少与工作位减少有关,特别是在畜牧业和雨水养殖业,需要适应策略.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境经济学环境经济学
背景情况:
- 全球农业就业对可预测的降雨模式很敏感.
- 墨西哥的农业部门支持2000万人的生计,面临着对气候变化的就业影响的有限研究.
- 对干旱和气候变化的有效适应战略受到这种知识差距的阻碍.
研究的目的:
- 分析五十年 (1980-2017) 墨西哥气候变化和农业就业之间的关系.
- 调查长期降水变化的影响农民和畜牧业生产者.
- 为农业部门的气候变化适应性和弹性制定国家政策提供信息.
主要方法:
- 利用来自国家农业调查和降水记录的政府数据集.
- 在国家一级分析了农民和畜牧生产者的就业变化.
- 在年度和季节性尺度上检查了降水数据.
主要成果:
- 在农业就业和年度降水总量之间发现了负相关性.
- 畜牧业的就业与当年的降雨有负相关性 (cor = -0.33).
- 雨水农业就业与前一年的降雨量相关 (cor = -0.33),可能是由于降雨对耕地面积和收入的积极影响.
结论:
- 降水变化对墨西哥的农业生计构成重大挑战.
- 据估计,每年大约有1000万人在干旱季节离开农业工作.
- 气候变化的影响可能正在驱使年轻人 (23-35岁) 远离农业,强调需要支持性的国家政策.
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