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基于实验室和非实验室心血管风险预测的歧视和校准性能:系统性审查
Yihun Mulugeta Alemu1,2, Sisay Mulugeta Alemu3, Nasser Bagheri4,5
1National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, College of Health and Medicine, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia yihun.alemu@anu.edu.au.
实验室和非实验室心血管疾病 (CVD) 风险预测模型显示了类似的歧视和校准. 然而,实验室预测因素显著改变了风险预测,特别是对于具有极端值的个体.
科学领域:
- 心血管疾病的研究研究.
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 心血管疾病 (CVD) 风险预测对于初级预防策略至关重要.
- 现有的风险预测模型利用了基于实验室或非实验室的因素.
- 为了指导临床实践,需要对这两种类型的模型进行全面比较.
研究的目的:
- 为了比较非实验室和实验室心血管疾病 (CVD) 风险预测方程的性能.
- 评估实验室预测因素对初级预防人群中心血管疾病风险评估的影响.
主要方法:
- 预测研究的系统审查.
- 搜索了五个数据库,直到2024年3月.
- 使用标准化工具评估偏差风险.
- 提取了关于危险比率 (HRs),歧视 (c-统计) 和校准的数据.
主要成果:
- 在九项研究中确定了六个独特的心血管疾病风险方程 (1238562名参与者).
- 实验室预测因素 (例如胆固醇,糖尿病) 显示出强烈的危险比率 (HR).
- 实验室和非实验室模型的中位数c-统计是相似的 (0.74),中位数绝对差异很小,为0.01.
结论:
- 区分和校准指标显示实验室和非实验室模型之间的差异很小.
- C-统计和校准可能对包含额外预测因素不敏感.
- 实验室预测因素大大改变预测的风险,特别是在预测值的极端.
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