纵使近期燃烧面积增加,北美各种森林仍然存在火灾赤字
Sean A Parks1, Christopher H Guiterman2,3, Ellis Q Margolis4
1USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute, Missoula, MT, USA. sean.parks@usda.gov.
Nature communications
|February 10, 2025
概括
尽管最近野火面积增加,但与历史火灾制度相比,北美森林表现出持续的火灾赤字. 最近的高火灾年份在几个世纪以来并非前所未有的,尽管火灾严重程度越来越令人担忧.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 林业林业 林业 林业 林业
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 北美森林面临着越来越多的野火烧毁的地区,挑战管理和社会适应.
- 当代的消防制度 (1984-2022) 与历史的消防制度 (1880年以前) 相比,以评估偏差.
- 了解历史火灾模式对于对当前野火趋势的理解至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了确定北美森林中是否存在当代火灾余或赤字.
- 评估最近的高火灾年份是否与多个世纪的历史火灾制度相比是前所未有的.
- 评估当前野火活动的长期生态背景.
主要方法:
- 利用北美树环火灾痕网络 (NAFSN),这是一个超过1800个火灾痕站点的数据集.
- 综合NAFSN数据与当代火灾周边 (1984-2022) 进行比较分析.
- 在多个世纪的时间尺度上,分析了各种森林类型的火灾发生情况.
主要成果:
- 在许多北美森林类型中仍然存在广泛的火灾赤字,尽管最近燃烧的面积增加了.
- 近几十年来异常高的火灾年份在考虑多个世纪的NAFSN记录时并非前所未有的.
- 例如,2020年的火灾年烧毁了NAFSN网站的6%,低于1748年的29%的历史最高值.
结论:
- 从历史角度来看,当代火灾的范围在许多北美森林中并非前所未有的.
- 然而,前所未有的当代火灾严重程度是森林损失和对人类系统的影响的重要驱动因素.
- 未来的森林管理必须解决火灾严重程度的升级以及范围的升级.
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