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半干旱地区能源城市的水资源利用和未来供需情景
Dong Wang1, Kai Li2, Hengji Li3
1School of Geography and Planning, Qingyang Tech Innovation Center of Remote Sensing On Soil and Water Conservation and Desertification Control, Longdong University, Qingyang, 745000, China. wangd2017@lzu.edu.cn.
Scientific reports
|February 10, 2025
概括
能源城市的水资源利用正在增长,需求对场景敏感. 高经济增长可能导致青阳市等半干旱地区的严重水资源短缺.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水资源管理 水资源管理
- 区域规划 地区规划
背景情况:
- 水资源规划对于可持续发展至关重要,特别是在半干旱的能源城市.
- 了解供水需求动态对于有效的资源分配至关重要.
- 能源城市面临着由气候变化和社会经济因素影响的独特水资源挑战.
研究的目的:
- 为了分析青阳市的供水和需求特征,在一个半干旱的能源地区进行案例研究.
- 在不同的场景下,在各个部门预测未来的水需求.
- 根据气候变化和社会经济路径,评估供水需求平衡.
主要方法:
- 利用共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 框架与气候模型数据相结合.
- 模拟和预测农业,工业,家庭和生态部门的未来用水需求.
- 分析了过去20年的历史供水和利用趋势.
主要成果:
- 在过去二十年中,清阳市的供水和利用量显著增长.
- 农业和生态用水分别呈现了持续和显著的增长.
- 未来的预测表明,部门水需求发生了重大变化,农业和生态用途对场景假设高度敏感.
- 高经济增长情景预测,清阳市在2024年至2035年之间将面临严重的水资源短缺.
结论:
- 青阳市的水资源利用模式已经显著发展,农业和生态需求的需求不断增加.
- 未来的水需求高度可变,并取决于所选择的社会经济和气候场景.
- 这座城市面临着水资源短缺的巨大风险,尤其是在经济高度发展的条件下,需要积极的水资源管理策略.
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