登革热患者的预后模型:系统性审查
Carlos Diaz-Arocutipa1,2, María Chumbiauca3, Percy Soto-Becerra2
1Unidad de Revisiones Sistemáticas y Meta-análisis (URSIGET), Vicerrectorado de Investigación, Universidad San Ignacio de Loyola, Lima, Peru.
The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene
|February 11, 2025
概括
这次审查发现了许多登革热预后模型,特别是严重程度和死亡率. 虽然判别能力往往很好,但报告不足和偏见的高风险限制了它们的临床有用性.
科学领域:
- 传染性疾病 传染性疾病
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 登革热预后的预测模型显示不确定的临床效用.
- 准确的预后对于有效的登革热患者管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 系统地审查和评估登革热严重程度,住院,重症监护室 (ICU) 入院和死亡率的预后模型.
主要方法:
- 在PubMed,Embase和LILACS进行系统的文献搜索,截至2023年5月.
- 包含开发或验证登革热多变量预后模型的病例控制和队列研究.
- 模型性能测量和偏差风险评估的叙述综合.
主要成果:
- 包括35项研究,包括43个预后模型;35项是发育研究,8项是外部验证.
- 模型主要针对严重程度 (30) 和死亡率 (10).
- C-统计数据在0.70-0.95 (严重程度) 和0.83-0.99 (死亡率) 之间,表明可接受的歧视,但校准报告不足. 在所有模型中都注意到存在偏差的高风险.
结论:
- 登革热存在多种预后模型,特别是用于严重程度和死亡率的预测.
- 尽管有可接受的歧视,但校准报告不足和偏差高风险限制了当前的临床适用性.
- 需要进一步进行高质量的研究,以开发登革热可靠的预后工具.
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