为了更透明的传染病风险评估 - 重新定义概率和影响
Maarten Nauta1, Lasse Engbo Christiansen1, Stine Kjær Lefèvre1
1Epidemiological Infectious Disease Preparedness, Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen S, Denmark.
这项研究提出了传染病风险评估的改进指导方针,提高了疫情防控能力. 新方法提供了更清晰的术语和定量方法来评估疾病引入概率和影响.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 风险评估 风险评估
背景情况:
- 有效的流行病准备依赖于强大的传染病风险评估程序.
- 现有的工具,如欧洲疾病预防控制中心 (ECDC) 的快速风险评估操作工具,可以得到增强.
- 修改当前指导方针可以加强快速风险评估过程.
研究的目的:
- 为传染病风险评估提出替代指导方针.
- 提出统一术语,并重新定义概率和影响维度.
- 为风险评估中表达不确定性的方法提供方法.
主要方法:
- 开发一个统一的风险评估术语.
- 定义风险问题应该如何由风险经理表达.
- 重新定义概率 (疾病引入) 和影响 (传播和严重程度) 的维度.
- 纳入表达不确定性的方法.
- 使用专家判断量化表达概率和扩散大小.
主要成果:
- 拟议的指导方针为风险评估提供了统一的术语.
- 为了更清晰的评估,重新定义了概率和影响维度.
- 包括表达不确定性的方法.
- 定量专家判断提供了明确的风险评估.
- 避免用简单的"低"或"高"资格来总结风险.
结论:
- 替代指南加强了传染病风险评估过程.
- 这些指导方针可以使公共卫生机构在疫情准备工作中受益.
- 这种方法,用mopox的例子来说明,已经在丹麦实施.
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