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在美国人口普查中列举无证居民是否会影响国会的分配?
John Robert Warren1, Robert E Warren2
1Institute for Social Research and Data Innovation, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455, USA.
PNAS nexus
|February 12, 2025
概括
将无证居民从美国人口普查数据中排除在国会分配之外,将对众议院席位和选举人团投票产生最小的影响. 这一变化不会影响党派控制众议院或总统选举结果.
科学领域:
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 公共政策 公共政策
背景情况:
- 关于将无证居民纳入美国国会分配的人口普查数据,存在争论.
- 辩论表明,排除他们可能会在国家和政党之间转移政治权力.
- 以前预测这些影响的分析是不准确的.
研究的目的:
- 实证地检查在美国人口普查数据中包括无证居民是否会改变政党在众议院的代表性.
- 为了确定是否包括无证居民影响总统选举人团投票.
主要方法:
- 使用了从1980年到现在的无证居民人口的州级年度估计.
- 在多个人口普查周期中,分析了包括无证居民在官方分配数据中的后果.
- 模拟的分配场景,不包括无证居民,以评估代表性的潜在转变.
主要成果:
- 如果从分配数据中排除无证居民,那么自1980年以来的任何一年,政党之间不超过两席众议院席位和三张选举团选票.
- 这些微小的变化不会影响党派对众议院的控制.
- 排除无证居民不会改变总统选举的结果.
结论:
- 在美国人口普查数据中将无证居民纳入分配数据对政党代表和选举人团结果的影响微乎其微.
- 目前关于将无证居民排除在分配之外的辩论没有经验证据支持其具有重大政治影响.
- 关于包括人口普查数据的政策决策应考虑对选举人代表性的最小影响.
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