膝关节骨关节炎的全球负担:基于人口的研究的二次数据分析
Jia-Le Ren1, Junnan Yang2, Wan Hu3
1Department of Rheumatology & Immunology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, No.218, Ji-Xi Road, Hefei, 230022, China.
Clinical rheumatology
|February 12, 2025
概括
膝关节骨关节炎是一个日益严重的全球健康问题,自1990年以来,病例和残疾调整寿命年 (DALYs) 显著增加. 预测表明,这种趋势将继续下去,突显了针对性干预的必要性.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 老年学是指老年学的学科.
背景情况:
- 膝关节骨关节炎是一个重大而广泛的全球健康挑战.
- 这种疾病影响着全世界数以百万计的人,需要对其负担和趋势有充分的了解.
研究的目的:
- 评估2021年膝关节骨关节炎的全球负担,包括发病率,患病率和残疾调整寿命年 (DALYs).
- 分析1990年至2021年的时间趋势,并使用先进的建模技术预测未来的疾病负担.
主要方法:
- 利用了2021年全球疾病负担研究的数据.
- 在趋势分析中使用线性回归和年龄周期队列 (APC) 和贝叶斯年龄周期队列 (BAPC) 模型进行未来预测.
- 使用自回归集成移动平均线 (ARIMA) 和指数式平滑模型进行了灵敏度分析.
主要成果:
- 在2021年,膝关节关节炎导致全球30.85万例发病病例,374.74万例流行病例和12.02万DALY.
- 女性,50岁以上的个人和社会人口指数较高地区的人口面临更高的风险.
- 从1990年到2021年,疾病负担 (发病率,流行率,DALY) 稳步增加,预计到2046年将进一步增加.
结论:
- 膝关节关节炎对全球公共卫生构成重大威胁.
- 积极主动,特定于环境的干预措施对于管理日益增长的疾病负担至关重要.
- 病例和DALYs的上升趋势迫切需要公共卫生战略和资源配置.
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