预测小分子药物的专利挑战:一个横截面研究
Ally Memedovich1, Brian Steele1, Taylor Orr1
1Department of Community Health Sciences, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada.
PLoS medicine
|February 12, 2025
概括
由于仿制药竞争延迟,品牌药物价格仍然很高. 较大的药品市场更有可能面临专利挑战,与抗感染药物或快速治疗药物不同. 政策干预可以促进及时的通用接入.
科学领域:
- 制药经济学 制药经济学
- 知识产权法 知识产权法
- 药品市场分析 药品市场分析
背景情况:
- 美国处方药的高成本是由于品牌制造商扩大了市场排他性而维持的.
- 专利保护使品牌药物获得无竞争期,延迟了仿制药的进入.
- 了解专利挑战预测因素可以为政策提供信息,以鼓励早期的仿制药竞争并降低药品价格.
研究的目的:
- 识别预测专利挑战的品牌药物的特征.
- 评估市场规模和其他药物属性在预测专利挑战中的作用.
- 为政策制定提供信息,旨在促进及时的通用药品竞争和患者获取.
主要方法:
- 由FDA (2007-2018) 批准的新型小分子药物的横截面研究.
- 数据来源于IQVIA MIDAS,FDA的色书和FDA的第IV段列表.
- 预测模型 (随机森林,弹性网) 用于评估在资格的一年内对专利提出的挑战.
主要成果:
- 55%的研究药物在第一年内面临专利挑战.
- 市场价值是最强的预测因素;较大的市场面临更多挑战.
- 抗感染药物和快速批准的药物不太可能受到挑战.
结论:
- 通用竞争的及时性在药物市场上有很大差异.
- 预测模型可以指导专利有效性审查和政策调整.
- 解决市场规模差异可以帮助降低品牌药物价格并改善获取.
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