在中国消除结核病传播的干预措施的基于模型的评估
Jianling Xiong1, Lingming Kong1, Yangling Shen1
1School of Mathematics and Computing Science, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guilin, 541004, China.
Public health
|February 12, 2025
概括
在中国,结核病 (TB) 控制至关重要. 将激活率和复发率降低90%可以显著降低结核病发病率,有助于实现世界卫生组织的目标,特别是在老年人中.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 结核病 (结核病) 仍然是中国的重大公共卫生挑战,尽管有控制努力.
- 了解结核病传播动态和评估干预措施对于消除策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析中国结核病的特定年龄分布.
- 评估各种干预措施对结核病控制的有效性.
- 预测未来的结核病发病率,并评估实现世卫组织消除目标的可行性.
主要方法:
- 使用普通微分方程开发了一个分区SVEIR模型来模拟结核病传播.
- 该模型使用2001-2021年中国结核病发病率数据 (全球疾病负担研究) 进行了验证.
- 计算了基本繁殖数 (R0),并根据不同的缓解策略模拟了未来的场景.
主要成果:
- 在2001年至2021年期间,中国的结核病发病率从每10万人口中的71.5下降到每10万人口中的43.7.
- 预计到2050年,老年人群中的结核病例比例将大幅增加.
- 预计,如果将激活和复发率降低90%,到2035年结核病发病率将降低94.54%,达到世卫组织的目标.
结论:
- 在中国,结核病控制是当务之急,需要有针对性的查和干预策略.
- 应特别注意老年人群,因为这一群体中的结核病病例比例越来越高.
- 数学建模为评估结核病控制策略和预测未来结果提供了宝贵的工具.
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