中国民用航空排放的驱动因素:考虑到空间异质性和相互依赖性
Simeng Ma1, Wenhui Zheng2, Bo Han1
1School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China; Research Centre for Environment and Sustainable Development of Civil Aviation of China, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China.
Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)
|February 12, 2025
概括
这项研究量化了中国民用航空的二氧化碳 (CO2) 和氧化 (NOx) 排放量. 国内生产总值 (GDP) 和消费等关键经济因素推动了这些排放,突出了减少航空污染的省际合作的必要性.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 运输科学 运输科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 航空运输是二氧化碳 (CO2) 和氧化 (NOx) 排放的重要来源,影响全球气候和空气质量.
- 关于运输排放的现有研究往往忽视了航空部门的特定动态和空间模式.
- 以前的研究还没有充分解决航空排放中固有的空间自相关性.
研究的目的:
- 在省级为中国制定详细的民用航空排放清单.
- 确定航空CO2和NOx排放的主要社会经济驱动因素.
- 分析这些排放在中国各省份的空间效应和时间模式.
主要方法:
- 使用自下而上的方法,根据2012年至2019年的每日飞行时间表创建民用航空排放清单.
- 用STIRPAT (人口,富裕和技术回归的随机影响) 模型来分析排放驱动因素.
- 空间德宾模型被用来评估省级排放的空间效应和自身相关性.
主要成果:
- 在中国的民用航空CO2和NOx排放中观察到明显的时空模式和非静止性.
- 国内生产总值 (GDP),人均GDP,运输价格指数和人均消费支出被确定为排放的重要积极驱动因素.
- 发现了显著的空间依赖,表明一个省份的排放会影响邻近省份的排放.
结论:
- 这些发现强调了社会经济因素在推动中国航空排放方面发挥的关键作用.
- 该研究强调,需要省际合作,以便在民用航空部门实施有效的减排战略.
- 政策制定者可以利用这些见解来制定有针对性的战略,以减少航空污染,并了解对排放的更广泛的社会经济影响.
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