绘制巴西痴呆症的数字:德尔菲共识研究
Márlon Juliano Romero Aliberti1,2, Claudia Kimie Suemoto1, Jerson Laks3
1Laboratorio de Investigacao Medica Em Envelhecimento (LIM-66), Servico de Geriatria, Hospital das Clinicas HCFMUSP, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil.
International journal of geriatric psychiatry
|February 12, 2025
概括
痴呆症影响了8.5%的60岁以上的巴西人,女性的发病率更高,地区差异更大. 预计到2060年,病例将增加三倍,需要采取紧急公共卫生行动.
科学领域:
- 神经学 神经学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 全球痴呆症危机正在升级,特别是在低收入和中等收入国家 (LMICs).
- 巴西的痴呆症患病率数据很少,现有的研究集中在富裕的城市地区.
- 在巴西,迫切需要全面的国家痴呆症流行数据.
研究的目的:
- 建立一个专家的共识,在巴西所有原因痴呆的流行情况.
- 分析巴西不同年龄组,性别和地理区域的痴呆症患病率.
- 根据人口老龄化,预测巴西未来的痴呆病例数.
主要方法:
- 一个德尔菲共识过程,涉及来自巴西各地的临床和学术专家.
- 在多个轮使用了包含文献数据的结构化问卷.
- 在15个流行率估计中的70%以上达成共识,包括总数,性别特异性和区域数据.
主要成果:
- 据估计,2019年巴西60岁以上的老年人中,所有原因痴呆的平均发病率为8.5% (2.46万人).
- 痴呆症的患病率在女性 (9.1%) 比男性 (7.7%) 高,在80岁以上的人群中超过20%.
- 观察到区域差异,东北地区 (10.1%) 患病率高于南方 (7.3%).
结论:
- 痴呆症影响大约每12名巴西老年人 (≥60岁) 中约有1名,性别和地理位置有显著差异.
- 预测显示,到2060年,痴呆病例将增加3.6倍,达到889万.
- 紧急的,有针对性的公共卫生战略对巴西至关重要,为其他面临类似挑战的LMICs提供了榜样.
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