关键农业成分对温室气体排放的线性和非线性影响
Nazeer Ahmed1, Guo Xinagyu2, Mohamad Alnafissa3
1School of Economics and Management, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, China.
Scientific reports
|February 12, 2025
概括
中国中国中国中国.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
背景情况:
- 农业是全球环境问题的重要贡献者,包括温室气体 (GHG) 排放,污染和生物多样性丧失.
- 中国的大型农业部门对全球温室气体排放有重大影响,需要有针对性的减排战略.
- 全球人口和粮食需求不断增长,预计将加剧农业对环境的影响.
研究的目的:
- 从1990年到2020年,动态评估关键农业变量对中国温室气体排放的影响.
- 区分农业因素对温室气体排放的长期和短期不对称影响.
- 为中国的可持续农业实践和减排提供基于证据的建议.
主要方法:
- 利用了1990年至2020年的农业用地,肥料消费,能源使用,增值,森林用地,畜牧业,渔业和作物生产的时间序列数据.
- 使用自回归分布式滞后 (ARDL) 和非线性ARDL (NARDL) 模型来分析长期和不对称的关系.
- 进行了共同整合分析,以确认变量之间的长期平衡.
主要成果:
- 长期ARDL分析表明,增加的农田,肥料使用,能源消耗,作物生产,畜牧业和渔业生产与更高的温室气体排放正相关.
- 长期扩大森林土地被发现可以减少温室气体排放.
- NARDL的结果表明,农田,肥料和能源使用的积极冲击显著增加了温室气体排放,而不利的冲击则减少了温室气体排放.
结论:
- 调查结果强调了农田,肥料和能源使用在推动中国温室气体排放方面发挥的重要作用.
- 增加森林面积和采用可再生能源对于减轻农业排放至关重要.
- 政策建议强调减少化学投入和促进可持续农业实践,以平衡粮食安全和环境保护.
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