评估森林火灾的可能性和识别火灾风险区域使用基于最大的模型在Khyber Pakhtunkhwa,巴基斯坦的森林火灾的可能性和识别
Rida Naseer1, Muhammad Nawaz Chaudhary2
1Department of Environmental Science and Policy, Lahore School of Economics, Lahore, Pakistan. rida.lse002@gmail.com.
Environmental monitoring and assessment
|February 12, 2025
概括
巴基斯坦Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) 的森林火灾受到风,降水和温度的显著影响. 了解这些环境因素对于制定该地区有效的森林火灾管理战略至关重要.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 林业林业 林业 林业 林业
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
背景情况:
- 巴基斯坦面临着有限的森林覆盖面,其中40%位于Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP),该地区对国家森林资源至关重要.
- 生态系统受到大量森林利用和过度开发的负面影响.
- 森林火灾对这些有价值的生态系统构成重大威胁.
研究的目的:
- 调查导致KP森林火灾的环境和社会变量.
- 使用最大 (Maxent) 模型来预测森林火灾的可能性和风险区域.
- 为了告知有针对性的森林火灾预防和管理策略.
主要方法:
- 采用最大 (Maxent) 建模来分析森林火灾的发生.
- 利用了MODIS的活跃火灾数据 (2000-2022) 和世界气候拉斯特数据 (温度,风,降水,高度,斜率,角度,人口密度).
- 使用曲线下的面积 (AUC) 评估模型性能,并通过刀分析确定了关键贡献变量.
主要成果:
- 马克森特模型表现出强的性能,AUC为0.833.
- 风 (34.2%),降水 (33.7%) 和温度 (18.9%) 是导致森林火灾的最有影响的因素.
- 确定了53%的研究区域为森林火灾高风险地区,包括阿博塔巴德和曼塞拉等特定地区.
结论:
- 环境变量,特别是风,降水和温度,是KP森林火灾风险的关键决定因素.
- 该研究强调了重要的高风险区域,需要有针对性的消防管理干预措施.
- 调查结果为开发有效的,数据驱动的森林火灾预防战略提供了关键的见解.
相关概念视频
Applications of GIS: Disaster Management and Emergency Response
36
Geographic Information System (GIS) technology is essential for risk identification, action prioritization, and resource optimization in critical situations like flooding and earthquakes. By integrating spatial and demographic data, GIS provides a comprehensive framework for emergency response.GIS integrates data layers, like rainfall intensity, topography, elevation profiles, and river levels, to model high-risk flood zones. These layers assess areas susceptible to flooding based on their...
36
Hazard Rate
83
The hazard rate, also known as the hazard function or failure rate, is a statistical measure used to describe the instantaneous rate at which an event occurs, given that the event has not yet happened. From a probabilistic perspective, it represents the likelihood that a subject will experience the event in a very small time interval, conditional on surviving up to the beginning of that interval. In terms of frequency, the hazard rate can be viewed as the ratio of the number of events to the...
83
Design Example: Analyzing Capacity Contours for Flood Risk Assessment
39
Flood risk assessment involves careful planning and analysis to ensure the safety of communities near water retention structures. Capacity contours are a vital tool in this process, as they illustrate the potential spread of water at specific levels in a given area. In the context of building a bund across a small valley, these contours play a critical role in evaluating the safety of nearby residential areas.In this example, the bund is intended to store stormwater in the valley. The engineers...
39
Survival Tree
52
Survival trees are a non-parametric method used in survival analysis to model the relationship between a set of covariates and the time until an event of interest occurs, often referred to as the "time-to-event" or "survival time." This method is particularly useful when dealing with censored data, where the event has not occurred for some individuals by the end of the study period, or when the exact time of the event is unknown.
Building a Survival Tree
Constructing a...
Building a Survival Tree
Constructing a...
52
Steps in Outbreak Investigation
102
In the ever-evolving field of public health, statistical analysis serves as a cornerstone for understanding and managing disease outbreaks. By leveraging various statistical tools, health professionals can predict potential outbreaks, analyze ongoing situations, and devise effective responses to mitigate impact. For that to happen, there are a few possible stages of the analysis:
102
Manipulation and Analysis
18
GIS manipulation and analysis functions are vital for decision-making and planning. These activities range from data retrieval tasks, such as selecting information based on specific criteria, to advanced analytical techniques that address complex spatial problems.One critical GIS analysis method is overlaying, which combines multiple data layers to examine impacts. For example, overlaying a river-dammed lake boundary with road networks can identify affected infrastructure. Another common...
18


