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适应性缓解气候变暖引起的粮食危机和污染

Jinglan Cui^1,2, Yujing Gao¹, Hans van Grinsven³

¹College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China.

Environmental science & technology

|February 13, 2025

概括

全球变暖威胁到粮食安全,并增加了污染. 我们的研究表明,仅仅是变暖就会使谷物产量减少21%,并增加气损失,但适应性策略可以减轻这些影响.

科学领域:

农业科学农业科学
环境科学环境科学
气候科学气候科学

背景情况:

全球变暖给世界人口的养带来了重大挑战.
气候变暖对全球粮食安全和农田中污染构成双重威胁.
温暖对全球耕地中循环的确切影响尚未完全理解.

研究的目的:

量化气候变暖对粮食产量和全球耕地中气损失的影响.
预测2050年气候变暖情景对全球收获和余产生的影响.
评估适应性缓解策略的潜力,以应对气候变暖引起的食品和污染危机.

主要方法:

利用气候建模来模拟全球变暖对农业系统的影响.
在预测的变暖情景下,谷物产量和损失的量化变化.
评估了变暖影响和减缓策略的经济影响.

主要成果:

预计仅仅是变暖就会使谷物产量减少21% (95% CI: 15-27%).
由于全球变暖,对环境的气损失估计将增加54-169%.
在2050年的变暖情景下,全球收获可能每年减少16 Tg,余增加29 Tg.

结论:

气候变暖严重危及全球粮食安全,并加剧了污染.
适应性的缓解策略,包括优化农业实践,可以有效抵消这些负面影响.
实施这些战略可以避免巨大的经济损失,估计为53000亿美元,投资730亿美元.

关键词:

适应性缓解适应性的缓解农业可持续性农业可持续性气候变化气候变化气候变化粮食安全粮食安全全球变暖全球变暖气循环中的气循环.

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