道路环境因素对涉及弱势道路使用者的交通事故的影响通过负二项式模型
Ying Chen1, Yi Tian1, Zhaoheng Ouyang1
1College of Architecture, Changsha University of Science & Technology, Changsha, Hunan Province, China.
PloS one
|February 13, 2025
概括
道路基础设施对行人安全有重大影响,特别是对老年人和儿童. 诸如多脚交叉路口和缺乏控制的特殊特征增加了事故风险,突出了定制安全干预措施的必要性.
科学领域:
- 运输工程 运输工程
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 城市规划 城市规划
背景情况:
- 行人安全是可持续和公平的交通系统的关键组成部分.
- 易受伤害的行人人口统计数据,包括老年人和儿童,面临不成比例地更高的风险.
- 需要适合年龄的政策和基础设施设计策略来缓解这些风险.
研究的目的:
- 综合分析客观道路基础设施属性与中国湖南省行人事故频率之间的关系.
- 确定导致涉及易受伤害的行人群体发生事故的特定基础设施风险因素.
- 为开发有针对性的干预和促进包容性基础设施设计提供经验证据,以实现交通公平.
主要方法:
- 利用详细的历史事故记录与空间显式基础设施数据联系在一起.
- 采用先进的计数回归建模技术,特别是负二项式 (NB) 和零缩短负二项式 (ZTNB) 规格.
- 评估了道路分类,交叉路口设计,交通管制,排列几何,行人隔离,土地使用和交通量对安全的影响.
主要成果:
- 零缩减负二项式 (ZTNB) 模型表现出比标准负二项式 (NB) 模型更好的统计匹配.
- 确定的主要基础设施风险因素包括多脚交叉路口,缺乏交通管制,曲线对齐和缺少隔离设施,所有这些都与行人事故增加有关.
- 高级道路的事故发生概率较低,而老年人和儿童在主要高速公路和普通道路上相比于专业区域特别容易受到伤害.
结论:
- 该研究提供了关于基础设施相关的行人风险的强有力的经验证据,对不同用户群体的影响各不相同.
- 调查结果强调了在交通规划和设计中考虑不同行人群的独特脆弱性的重要性.
- 年龄分类分析为通过包容性基础设施设计和量身定制的安全干预措施实现Vision Zero目标提供了关键的见解.
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