数学能力高,反思能力高,但仍然具有非理性偏见:要点是如何解释风险选择
Valerie F Reyna1, Jordan E Roue1, Sarah M Edelson1
1Department of Psychology, Cornell University.
Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition
|February 13, 2025
概括
甚至像会计师这样的专家也表现出框架效应和艾莱斯悖论,挑战理性选择理论. 这表明直觉,而不仅仅是认知能力,驱动决策偏见.
科学领域:
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
- 决策科学 决策科学 决策科学
- 认知心理学 认知心理学
背景情况:
- 框架效应和艾莱斯悖论是从理性选择理论的关键偏差.
- 双过程理论将这些效应与计算能力和认知反思联系起来.
- 模糊痕迹理论认为基于本质的直觉是另一种解释,特别是对于专家来说.
研究的目的:
- 调查认证会计师 (CPA) 是否作为一个高人数的群体,坚持理性选择理论.
- 测试双流程理论与关于专家决策偏见的模糊追踪理论的预测.
- 检查认知反射测试 (CRT) 分数在框架效应和CPA和学生中的艾莱斯悖论中的作用.
主要方法:
- 对CPA (N=259) 和学生 (N=648) 进行了框架效应问题 (疾病和商业领域) 和艾莱斯悖论任务.
- 包括认知反射测试 (CRT) 来评估认知能力.
- 为了减轻订单效应,在问题陈述顺序中使用了反平衡.
主要成果:
- 无论是CPA还是学生,都表现出框架效应和艾莱斯悖论,这与专家们的预期相反.
- 会计师没有显示业务相关问题的框架效应减少.
- 两组CRT得分高的人都表现出强大的框架效应和艾莱斯悖论,与模糊痕迹理论保持一致.
结论:
- 专业知识和高认知能力 (计数,CRT) 并不能消除框架效应或艾莱斯悖论.
- 研究结果支持模糊痕迹理论,表明依赖基于本质的直觉,而不是缺乏认知技能,是这些决策偏见的基础.
- 这项研究挑战了双流程理论强调认知反射作为理性选择的唯一调解者.
相关概念视频
Hindsight Biases
3.4K
Hindsight bias leads you to believe that the event you just experienced was predictable, even though it really wasn’t. In other words, you knew all along that things would turn out the way they did. Can you relate this to the phrase "Hindsight is 20/20" now?
3.4K
Reason and Intuition
6.3K
The human brain processes information for decision-making using one of two routes: an intuitive system and a rational system (Epstein, 1994; popularized by Kahneman, 2011 as System 1 and System 2, respectively). The intuitive system is quick, impulsive, and operates with minimal effort, relying on emotions or habits to provide cues for what to do next, while the rational system is logical, analytical, deliberate, and methodical. Research in neuropsychology suggests that the...
6.3K
The Anchoring-and-Adjustment Heuristic
7.2K
In order to make good decisions, we use our knowledge and our reasoning. Often, this knowledge and reasoning is sound and solid. However, sometimes, we are swayed by biases or by others manipulating a situation. For example, let’s say you and three friends wanted to rent a house and had a combined target budget of $1,600. The realtor shows you only very run-down houses for $1,600 and then shows you a very nice house for $2,000. Might you ask each person to pay more in rent to get the...
7.2K
Bias
3.7K
Bias refers to any tendency that prevents a question from being considered unprejudiced. In research, bias occurs when one outcome or answer is selected or encouraged over others in sampling or testing. Bias can occur during any research phase, including study design, data collection, analysis, and publication.
In statistics, a sampling bias is created when a sample is collected from a population, and some members of the population are not as likely to be chosen as others (remember, each member...
In statistics, a sampling bias is created when a sample is collected from a population, and some members of the population are not as likely to be chosen as others (remember, each member...
3.7K
Cause and Effect
10.9K
While variables are sometimes correlated because one does cause the other, it could also be that some other factor, a confounding variable, is actually causing the systematic movement in our variables of interest. For instance, as sales in ice cream increase, so does the overall rate of crime. Is it possible that indulging in your favorite flavor of ice cream could send you on a crime spree? Or, after committing crime do you think you might decide to treat yourself to a cone?
10.9K
The Availability Heuristic
5.9K
A heuristic is a general problem-solving framework (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974). You can think of these as mental shortcuts that are used to solve problems. Different types of heuristics are used in different types of situations, and the impulse to use a heuristic occurs when one of five conditions is met (Pratkanis, 1989):
5.9K


