在夏季季风期间,MJO在印度洋迅速变暖的地区的居住时间翻了三倍
Wenjun Zhang1, Xuben Lei2, Guosen Chen1
1CIC-FEMD/KLME, State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China.
Science bulletin
|February 13, 2025
概括
马登-朱利安振荡 (MJO) 现在在夏季在印度洋上停滞时间长达三倍. 这种MJO停滞与海洋变暖有关,并增加了未来气候灾害的风险.
科学领域:
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
背景情况:
- 马登-朱利安振荡 (MJO) 是热带天气变化的主要驱动因素.
- 季节之间MJO的行为有所不同,在夏季经常在印度洋上停滞.
研究的目的:
- 为了调查在亚洲夏季季风期间印度洋上空MJO行为的变化.
- 为了确定MJO停滞和印度洋变暖之间的联系.
- 评估与这些变化相关的未来气候风险.
主要方法:
- 在过去的四十年中,分析了MJO的繁殖和居住时间数据.
- 对MJO活动与印度洋海面温度之间的相关性分析.
- 对气候模型关于未来变暖和MJO行为预测的审查.
主要成果:
- 近几十年来,MJO在印度洋上的停留时间增加了三倍.
- 这种增加的MJO停滞与印度洋快速变暖有很强的相关性.
- 预计变暖趋势将继续,这表明MJO活动将持续.
结论:
- 印度洋的快速变暖正在加剧MJO在亚洲夏季季风季期间停滞不前.
- 这种现象增加了印度洋边缘国家极端天气事件的可能性.
- 未来的人为变暖可能会加剧这些风险,导致更高的气候灾害潜力.
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