老龄化影响美洲? :探索增长方向:美国背景下老年人口与经济增长之间的关系
Thaveesha Jayawardhana1, Ruwan Jayathilaka2, Ridhmi Karadanaarachchi1
1SLIIT Business School, Sri Lanka Institute of Information Technology, New Kandy Road, Malabe, Sri Lanka.
BMC geriatrics
|February 13, 2025
概括
在一些北美和南美国家,经济增长影响了老年人口,而老年人口则影响了其他国家的经济增长. 大多数国家显示,经济增长和人口老龄化之间没有因果关系.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
背景情况:
- 人口老龄化与经济增长之间的关系是可持续发展研究的关键领域.
- 了解人口变化及其经济影响对于有效的政策制定至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查25个北美和南美国家的老年人口与经济增长之间的因果关系.
- 在整个条件分布中分析格兰杰因果关系,而不仅仅是平均值,使用波形连贯性分析.
主要方法:
- 利用了25个北美和南美国家的1961年至2021年的年度二级数据.
- 在整个条件分布上使用波形连贯性分析来研究老年人口与经济增长之间的格兰杰因果关系.
主要成果:
- 在玻利维亚,哥伦比亚,圭亚那,秘鲁和波多黎各,从人均GDP到老年人口之间发现了单向格兰杰因果关系.
- 确定了从老年人口到哥斯达黎加,厄瓜多尔和洪都拉斯的人均GDP的单向格兰杰因果关系.
- 没有观察到其他国家的因果关系;经济增长积极导致北美老年人口 (21世纪初) 和负面在南美 (整个时期).
结论:
- 政策制定者必须考虑老年人口经济增长因果关系的动态和不断变化的性质.
- 调查结果强调需要进行国家特定分析和适应性政策策略,以应对人口变化和经济发展.
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