自1959年以来,社会科学中的出版偏见:应用回归不连续性框架
Julia Jerke1, Antonia Velicu2, Fabian Winter2
1Swiss National Science Foundation, Bern, Switzerland.
PloS one
|February 14, 2025
概括
几十年前,经济学中的出版偏见存在,并从10%的显著性水平转移到5%的显著性水平. 这一趋势反映了计算能力和期刊接受率的变化.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 计量经济学 计量经济学
- 科学出版科学出版
背景情况:
- 出版偏见是社会科学中已知的问题,但随着时间的推移,特别是随着出版压力的增加,它的演变并未得到充分理解.
- 经济学季度期刊是领先的期刊,使其出版记录成为分析趋势的宝贵来源.
研究的目的:
- 分析几十年来经济学出版偏见的历史趋势和变化.
- 开发和应用一种用于检测显著性值中不连续性的新方法.
主要方法:
- 从1959年至2018年期间发表在"经济学季刊"上的571篇论文中提取了12,340份测试统计数据.
- 开发了一种新的统计方法来测试显著性值不连续性.
主要成果:
- 出版偏见在经济学研究中比预期的早得多,不仅仅是最近的现象.
- 随着时间的推移,出版偏差模式发生了显著的转变,从10%的显著性水平移动到5%的显著性水平.
结论:
- 观察到的出版偏差变化可能受到计算能力的进步的影响.
- 顶级科学期刊的接受率和编辑政策的变化也在塑造出版偏见方面发挥着作用.
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