对攻击者战略决策,信号和威的游戏理论模型的行为验证,用于软目标的多层安全中
Kevin Kapadia1, Ian Unson2, Katie Byrd1
1Department of Psychology, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California, USA.
Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|February 14, 2025
概括
了解攻击者的决定是防御的关键. 这项研究验证了一种游戏模型,该模型显示攻击者倾向于不受防御的高价值目标,冒险者更容易攻击.
科学领域:
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
- 游戏理论 游戏理论
- 安全研究 安全研究
背景情况:
- 有效的防御资源分配需要了解攻击者的动机.
- 软目标存在独特的挑战,因为它们的可访问性和潜在的回报.
研究的目的:
- 验证一个游戏理论模型,预测攻击者对软目标的行为.
- 探索攻击者决策中的奖励,成功概率和防御层之间的相互作用.
主要方法:
- 使用了2x2的因子设计,比较了保卫/未保卫和低/高预期值 (EV) 的目标.
- 454名美国成年人评估了24种攻击场景,奖励,成功概率和防御信号各不相同.
- 评估了参与者的冒险倾向,并与攻击决策相关联.
主要成果:
- 结果与模型预测一致:具有更高EV的无防御目标更具吸引力.
- 与更高的成功概率和更小的奖励相比,更低的成功概率和更高的奖励降低了攻击的可能性.
- 较高的自我报告风险承担与更大的攻击倾向相关.
结论:
- 经过验证的游戏模型可以根据目标防御和攻击者的吸引力来预测威胁的可能性.
- 了解这些因素有助于利益相关者优化安全策略和资源配置.
- 个人的风险承受能力是影响攻击者决策的重要因素.
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