预计美国放射科医生供应,2025年至2055年
Eric W Christensen1, Jay R Parikh2, Alexandra R Drake3
1Research Director, Harvey L. Neiman Health Policy Institute, Reston, Virginia.
Journal of the American College of Radiology : JACR
|February 14, 2025
概括
预计到2055年,未来的放射科医生劳动力将增长25.7%至40.3%,这取决于居住职位的增长. 随着COVID-19后消耗率的增加,放射科医生供应可能会显著减少.
科学领域:
- 医疗劳动力规划 医疗劳动力规划
- 医疗保健服务研究 医疗服务研究
- 放射学 放射学是一门学科.
背景情况:
- 放射科医生的工作人员对于医学成像解释和诊断至关重要.
- 了解未来的劳动力趋势对于医疗保健系统规划和确保足够的患者护理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 预测未来的放射科医生劳动力规模,直到2055年.
- 分析放射科住院职位和消耗对放射科医生供应的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用CMS国家可下载文件 (2014-2023) 进行当前供应和消耗建模.
- 采用非线性回归来评估按性别和COVID-19时代的消耗模式.
- 应用线性回归到国家居留匹配计划数据 (2005-2024) 新进入者.
主要成果:
- 预计2023年的放射科医生供应量为37,482.
- 如果没有居住增长,到2055年,劳动力可能达到47,119人 (25.7%的增长).
- 随着居民人数的增长,到2055年,劳动力可能达到52,591人 (40.3%的增长).
- 随着COVID-19后更高的消耗率,到2055年可能会减少3,116名放射科医生.
结论:
- 到2055年,放射科医生的劳动力预计将在25.7%至40.3%之间扩大,这取决于居住职位的增长.
- 在COVID-19后持续增加的消耗率对未来的放射科医生供应构成重大风险.
- 关于居住职位的战略规划和解决消耗因素对于劳动力稳定至关重要.
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