逻辑回归和机器学习方法用于预测残疾老年人抑郁风险的比较:来自中国健康和退休长度研究的结果
Shanshan Hong1, Bingqian Lu1, Shaobing Wang2
1Center of Health Administration and Development Studies, Hubei University of Medicine, NO. 30 Ren Min South Road, Maojian District, Shiyan, Hubei, 442000, China.
BMC psychiatry
|February 14, 2025
概括
一个新的预测模型有助于确定中国残疾老年人的抑郁风险. 关键的危险因素包括健康状况不佳,疼痛和认知障碍,使早期干预成为可能.
科学领域:
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 心理健康研究 心理健康研究
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 中国面临着越来越多的残疾老年人口.
- 抑郁症是老年人中普遍存在的心理健康问题.
- 对这种人口群体来说,越来越需要有效的抑郁风险预测模型.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证中国残疾老年人抑郁风险预测模型.
- 为了确定与此种人群中抑郁症相关的关键风险因素.
主要方法:
- 利用了2018年中国健康与退休长度研究 (CHARLS) 的数据.
- 基于日常生活活动 (ADL) 和日常生活工具活动 (IADL) 的定义残疾.
- 使用流行病学研究中心抑郁症尺度 (CES-D10) 评估抑郁症状.
- 使用后勤回归和XGBoost模型进行预测,用ROC曲线,校准图和决策曲线评估性能.
主要成果:
- 包括3,107名残疾老年人 (≥60岁).
- 确定了独立的风险因素:自我评估的健康状况不佳,疼痛,缺乏护理人员,认知障碍和睡眠时间缩短.
- 后勤回归模型在验证组中实现了0.73的AUC,显示出良好的校准和临床实用性.
结论:
- 开发的预测模型在评估抑郁风险方面表现出显著的有效性.
- 促进早期识别高风险个体,以便及时干预.
- 帮助医疗保健专业人员和家庭在残疾老年人中管理抑郁症.
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