模拟致命事故的低时间,大空间数据:负二项式GSARIMAX时间序列的应用
Sara Ghalehnovi1, Abolfazl Mohammadzadeh Moghaddam1, Seyed Iman Mohammadpour2
1Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Razavi Khorasan, Iran.
Accident; analysis and prevention
|February 15, 2025
概括
一个新的负双项通用季节性自回归集成移动平均值与外源变量 (GSARIMAX) 模型准确地分析了伊朗每天的致命交通事故. 这种先进的模型结合了交通量和温度,改善了道路安全干预措施的预测.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生和流行病学
- 运输安全运输安全
- 统计建模 统计建模
背景情况:
- 道路交通伤害是一个主要的公共卫生问题,特别是在像伊朗这样的发展中国家,死亡率不断上升.
- 有效的缓解需要先进的分析方法来理解和解决导致交通事故死亡的因素.
- 现有的模型经常使用聚合数据,限制了对大型空间区域的撞车事件的细粒度分析.
研究的目的:
- 引入和评估负双项通用季节性自回归集成移动平均值与外源变量 (GSARIMAX) 模型,用于分析伊朗每日致命事故数据.
- 评估模型在处理低时间和大空间计数数据方面的性能,考虑过度分散.
- 确定影响致命事故发生的关键外源变量和季节性模式.
主要方法:
- 在伊朗,从2014年3月到2022年3月的每日致命事故数量应用负二项GSARIMAX模型.
- 包括外部变量:交通量,温度 (最大/分钟),风速和风向.
- 纳入年度和半年度波动的和性季节性组件;使用DIC和MARE评估模型性能.
主要成果:
- 负二进制GSARIMAX (0,1,2) -SOH模型的表现优于其高斯式对应模型,显示较低的MARE和DIC值.
- 交通量和最高温度被确定为致命事故的重要预测因素.
- 季节性和术语通过捕捉时间动态显著提高了模型的准确性.
结论:
- 与传统的高斯方法相比,负二项式GSARIMAX模型提供了优越的适合性和预测能力,用于较低的时间分辨率,较大的空间撞击数据.
- 整合外部变量和季节性组件可以提高预测性能,这对于有效的交通安全分析至关重要.
- 该模型为决策者提供了有价值的见解,以制定有针对性的干预措施,以减少伊朗的交通死亡人数.
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