扩展作物产量元分析数据不支持SCC上升修订.
1Department of Economics and Finance, University of Guelph, Guelph, Canada. Ross.mckitrick@uoguelph.ca.
Scientific reports
|February 15, 2025
概括
重新分析作物产量数据显示,全球作物产量可能不会随着变暖而下降,这与之前用于碳的社会成本的估计相反. 这一发现挑战了当前的气候经济模式.
科学领域:
- 气候变化的经济学
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 环境政策 环境政策
背景情况:
- 最近,拜登政府大幅增加了碳的社会成本 (SCC) 估计.
- 这一增长部分是基于预测全球作物产量由于变暖而下降的预测.
- 最初的预测利用了2014年的元分析数据库,但存在大量数据限制.
研究的目的:
- 重新检查用于SCC计算的元分析数据库.
- 评估数据完整性对预计全球作物产量变化在变暖情景下的影响.
- 为了更准确地估计气候变化对农业的影响.
主要方法:
- 通过恢复缺失的数据点,重新分析原始元分析数据集.
- 通过数据恢复将数据集从862个扩展到1222个记录.
- 在增强数据集上执行多变量回归建模.
主要成果:
- 原始数据集表明,即使在低升温水平下,所有作物的产量都会下降.
- 重新分析,更大的数据集表明零或正的全球平均收益率变化.
- 这些正面或中性的产量变化甚至持续到5°C的变暖.
结论:
- 重新分析表明,气候变暖对全球作物产量的影响可能比先前估计的要小.
- 这些发现挑战了最近碳社会成本上升的基础.
- 需要使用全面数据进行进一步的研究,以准确地建模气候变化对农业的影响.
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