气溶的减少增加了欧洲夏季的日间温度范围
Carla M Roesch1, Emilie Fons2, Andrew P Ballinger1
1School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom.
概括
气溶显著影响欧洲的日间温度范围 (DTR),即每日最高和最低温度之间的差异. 自20世纪80年代以来,气溶排放量减少导致夜晚变冷,增加了DTR.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 日间温度范围 (DTR) 对于理解极端温度影响至关重要.
- 之前的研究面临着挑战,将观察到的DTR变化归因于气溶强迫.
- 气溶已知与温度变化有物理联系.
研究的目的:
- 为了因果地确定气溶作为自1940年以来欧洲DTR变化的驱动因素.
- 评估气候模型模拟气溶对DTR的影响的能力.
- 导出对表面短波辐射上的气溶有效辐射强迫估计.
主要方法:
- 对观察数据应用因果推理方法.
- 观察到的因果效应与两个CMIP6模型的模拟结果的比较.
- 估计由因果效应产生的有效辐射强迫.
主要成果:
- 自1940年以来,气溶被确定为欧洲DTR变化的明显驱动因素.
- 自20世纪80年代以来,由于气溶排放量减少,欧洲的DTR增加了大约0.5K.
- 在观察和建模的因果效应之间发现了一致性,验证了模型参数化.
结论:
- 气溶排放的减少是最近欧洲DTR的增加的原因.
- 模型评估表明,需要改进微物理和辐射参数化.
- 对气溶的有效辐射强迫估计在观测和一个模型中从-1.7到-1.5 Wm-2不等.
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