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依赖基础设施服务中断映射 (DISruptionMap):一种在灾难场景中评估级联服务中断的方法
Moritz Schneider1, Lukas Halekotte2, Andrea Mentges2
1Institute for the Protection of Terrestrial Infrastructures, German Aerospace Center, Sankt Augustin, Germany. moritz.schneider@dlr.de.
Scientific reports
|February 17, 2025
概括
由于自然灾害造成的关键基础设施中断是复杂的. DISruptionMap分析了直接和级联故障,减少了对更好的准备工作的数据需求.
科学领域:
- 基础设施弹性 基础设施的弹性
- 自然危害影响评估自然危害影响评估
- 系统工程是系统工程.
背景情况:
- 关键基础设施对于现代社会至关重要.
- 自然灾害可能会在多个服务中造成广泛的,级联式故障.
- 分析这些干扰的现有方法是数据密集型和不切实际的.
研究的目的:
- 引入DISruptionMap,这是一种用于分析关键基础设施服务复杂中断的新方法.
- 为评估直接和间接 (级联) 服务中断提供一个实用的方法.
- 减少对建模基础设施相互依赖的数据要求.
主要方法:
- 结合空间服务模型用于直接破坏评估.
- 使用服务依赖模型进行间接中断分析.
- 实施基于故障树的方法来简化依赖性建模.
主要成果:
- DISruptionMap方法有效地分析复杂的基础设施中断.
- 实现了对依赖性模型的数据要求的显著减少.
- 该案例研究证明了该方法在评估洪水对健康,交通和电力服务的影响方面的有效性.
结论:
- DISruptionMap为了解关键基础设施漏洞提供了一种实用且高效的数据解决方案.
- 该方法通过考虑级联故障,提高了对自然灾害的准备.
- 这种方法对城市规划和灾害风险管理有价值.
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