未来的气候变化和普通吸血鬼蝙蝠的分布转移,Desmodus rotundus
Paige Van de Vuurst1,2,3, Julia M Gohlke4,5, Luis E Escobar6,7,8
1Translational Biology, Medicine, and Health Program, Virginia Tech Graduate School, Blacksburg, VA, USA.
Scientific reports
|February 18, 2025
概括
气候变化可能会将狂犬病病毒携带的吸血鬼蝙蝠 (Desmodus rotundus) 的范围扩大到美洲的新区域. 这种扩张对牲畜和野生动物构成风险,需要进行准备评估.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化生物学 气候变化生物学
- 疾病生态学 疾病生态学
背景情况:
- 扰乱的生态系统和气候变化增加了病原体溢出和疾病出现的风险.
- 了解气候变化对野生动物疾病库的影响,对于预测疾病负担至关重要.
- 像吸血鬼蝙蝠 (Desmodus rotundus) 这样的自由活动的蝙蝠可以作为狂犬病病毒等重要病原体的储存库.
研究的目的:
- 评估气候变化对吸血鬼蝙蝠 (Desmodus rotundus) 分布的潜在影响.
- 通过分析疾病储库分布的变化来预测潜在的疾病负担.
- 评估不同气候变化时期,排放场景和全球循环模型 (GCM) 对分布模型的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用了当前和未来的气候数据,以及Desmodus rotundus的历史发生数据.
- 采用了物种分布建模技术.
- 在各种气候变化场景和GCM中进行了比较分析.
主要成果:
- 在分析的未来气候中观察到Desmodus rotundus范围扩张的一致信号.
- 潜在的扩张地区包括美国南部以及阿根廷和智利的部分地区.
- 由于利基保护主义,亚马逊雨林中的一些现有息地可能会变得不适合Desmodus rotundus的气候.
结论:
- 预计气候变化将推动吸血鬼蝙蝠 (Desmodus rotundus) 的范围大幅扩大.
- 这种扩张可能会给新适合的地区的天真哺乳动物种群和牲畜带来新的风险.
- 对于预计出现Desmodus rotundus增加的地区,建议对准备情况进行主动评估.
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