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未来三十年的水农业关系是一个系统动态方法
Mohammad Jamali1, Hamed Yazdian2, Ghazaleh Bahman2
1Department of Water Science and Engineering, College of Agriculture, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan, 84156-83111, Iran. mohammad.jamali@ag.iut.ac.ir.
Scientific reports
|February 18, 2025
概括
可持续农业对于粮食安全至关重要,但到2054年将面临严重的水资源短缺. 一个动态模型表明,停止水密集型作物和减少地下水的提取可以显著提高水位和弥补短缺.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 水资源管理 水资源管理
背景情况:
- 农业是全球水资源的主要消费者,对粮食安全至关重要.
- 目前的农业用水模式预计到2054年将严重短缺,威胁到粮食和水安全.
- 现有的水资源短缺已经影响了作物种植和未来的供应.
研究的目的:
- 开发和利用一个基于系统的动态模型来模拟2025年至2054年的水资源.
- 在预计稀缺的情况下分析农业用水和地下水回收.
- 根据物理生产率,经济生产率和用水量来评估耕种面积.
主要方法:
- 使用基于系统的动态模型来模拟水资源.
- 该模型的重点是农业用水量和地下水回收预测.
- 使用物理生产率,经济生产率和水消耗指标来评估耕种面积.
主要成果:
- 预测条件表明,水资源严重短缺,地下水位下降.
- 最有效的缓解方案包括停止水密集型作物,并将地下水抽取量减少25%.
- 这种情况使地表和地下水位分别上升了29.5%和36.5%,抵消了65.1%的水资源短缺.
结论:
- 迫切需要实施可持续的水资源管理战略,以应对未来的水资源短缺问题.
- 拟议的模型为水资源稀缺地区的政策制定者提供了有价值的工具.
- 有效的水资源管理对于确保农业和粮食安全至关重要.
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