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基于贝叶斯蒙特卡洛模拟的通风门筒的可靠性评估方法和系统
Peiyang Su1, Liwen Guo2, Jiayong Zhang3
1College of Mining Engineering, North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan, 063210, Hebei, China.
Scientific reports
|February 18, 2025
概括
本研究介绍了一种使用贝叶斯推理和蒙特卡洛模拟的韦布尔寿命预测方法,用于预测矿山通风门中的气可靠性. 这提高了关键采矿设备的安全和维护规划.
科学领域:
- 采矿工程 采矿工程 采矿工程
- 可靠性工程可靠性工程
- 统计建模 统计建模
背景情况:
- 自动通风门对于矿山安全和通风稳定至关重要.
- 气监控通常是不充分的,危及运行可靠性.
- 需要进行主动维护,以防止关键采矿组件的故障.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种威布尔寿命预测方法,用于预测气可靠性变化.
- 整合贝叶斯推理和蒙特卡洛模拟,以准确预测生命.
- 建立矿山应急控制设备的可靠性评估系统.
主要方法:
- 应用贝叶斯方法和加速寿命测试原则来分析气寿命特征.
- 利用蒙特卡洛模拟在不同的操作条件下估计韦布尔参数.
- 对于未知形状和规模的韦布尔参数,导出后端分布函数.
主要成果:
- 拟议的方法有效地预测了使用截断的小样本数据的气寿命.
- 生命特征被证明与温度等环境因素相关.
- 在自动通风门的寿命评估中证明适用性.
结论:
- 开发的韦布尔预测方法克服了可靠性分析传统方法的局限性.
- 成功开发了矿山紧急控制设备的实时可靠性评估系统.
- 这些发现支持在采矿业务中加强维护和管理实践.
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