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基于问卷的肺癌风险预测模型对风险歧视的对比比较:系统性审查和元分析
Clara Frick1,2, Teresa Seum1,2, Megha Bhardwaj1,3
1Division of Clinical Epidemiology and Aging Research, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Im Neuenheimer Feld 581, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany.
EClinicalMedicine
|February 19, 2025
概括
肺癌风险模型的准确性各不相同. 肺癌风险评估工具 (LCRAT),巴赫模型和PLCOm2012在对比比较中始终表现出优异的预测性能,用于识别高风险个体.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 肺癌风险预测模型对于识别有资格参加查计划的人来说至关重要.
- 之前对这些模型的评估在不同的研究队伍中产生了不一致的结果.
- 需要直接比较同一群体内的各种肺癌风险模型的预测性能.
研究的目的:
- 系统地审查和元分析肺癌风险预测模型的对比比较.
- 评估和总结不同模型的风险歧视性表现,当同时评估时.
- 识别具有始终优越预测能力的模型.
主要方法:
- 在PubMed和Web of Science数据库中进行了系统的搜索,截至2024年10月16日.
- 包括的研究比较了基于调查问卷的肺癌风险模型,这些模型是在现有或前吸烟者的外部验证队列中进行的.
- 随机效应元分析合成了曲线下面积 (AUC) 的差异,并使用PROBAST评估了偏差风险.
主要成果:
- 包括15项研究,包括超过410万个人的研究.
- 模型之间的AUC差异高达0.050.
- 与其他模型相比,肺癌风险评估工具 (LCRAT),巴赫模型和PLCOm2012模型始终显示出更高的AUC.
结论:
- 通常使用的肺癌风险模型的预测性能存在显著差异.
- 在对比比较中,LCRAT,巴赫模型和PLCOm2012模型的表现始终优于其他工具.
- 这些发现突出了改善肺癌查风险分层的具体模型.
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