开发和验证预测模型的感知和未满足的心理健康需求在加拿大一般人口:基于模型的合成估计研究研究
Jianli Wang1,2, Heather Orpana3,4, André Carrington5
1Department of Community Health and Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Dalhousie University, 5790 University Avenue, Halifax, NS, B3H 1V7, Canada, 1 9024943860.
JMIR public health and surveillance
|February 19, 2025
概括
开发预测模型来了解加拿大的感知和未满足的心理健康需求是可行的. 这些模型可以帮助人口层面的心理健康服务规划和资源分配.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 医疗保健服务研究 医疗服务研究
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 感知到的心理健康需求对于服务需求和规划至关重要.
- 预测人口层面的心理健康需求是具有挑战性的,因为预测工具有限.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证预测模型,用于感知和未满足的心理健康需求.
- 模型旨在预测加拿大省级和卫生区域一级的需求.
主要方法:
- 利用加拿大社区健康调查和加拿大城市环境数据 (2018-2020年).
- 使用回归合成估计用于模型开发和验证.
- 通过比较心理健康需求的观察和预测比例来评估模型性能.
主要成果:
- 感知心理健康需求的患病率为~18%,未满足需求为~3.9% (2018-2020年).
- 关键预测因素包括性别,年龄,自我报告的心理健康,诊断的障碍和生活压力/满意度.
- 模型表现出良好的区分能力 (C统计数据>0.83) 和校准,在关键省份的差异<1%.
结论:
- 在人口层面上预测心理健康需求是可行的.
- 由于不同的人口特征和贡献因素,需要特定区域的模型.
- 模型性能可能会受到区域人口规模的影响.
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