量化传染病流行风险:一种针对季节性病原体的实用方法
Alexander R Kaye1,2, Giorgio Guzzetta3, Michael J Tildesley1,2,4
1Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom.
PLoS computational biology
|February 19, 2025
概括
对于季节性传染病,标准病例流行病风险 (CER) 可能没有信息. 一种新的值流行病风险 (TER) 方法为具有季节性传播模式的病原体提供了更好的疫情风险评估.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 传染病的爆发风险通常取决于病原体引入的季节.
- 目前的方法如病例流行风险 (CER) 可能对季节性病原体没有信息,因为忽视了季节性传播限制.
研究的目的:
- 开发和评估一种用于评估季节性病原体爆发风险的新方法.
- 在具有强烈季节性传播模式的场景中解决病例流行风险 (CER) 的局限性.
主要方法:
- 设计了一种替代方法:值流行病风险 (TER).
- TER计算了在灭绝之前超过感染值数量的概率.
- 对于简单的模型,TER可以用数值计算,对于复杂的模型 (例如宿主-向量) 可以通过模拟估计.
主要成果:
- 病例流行风险 (CER) 可能接近于零,并且在传输被长期限制时没有信息.
- 流行病风险值 (TER) 为季节性病原体提供了更具信息性和实际相关的风险评估.
- 在意大利北部使用 chikungunya 病毒的应用已被证明,突出显示了夏季传播的适用性.
结论:
- 流行病风险值 (TER) 是评估季节性病原体爆发潜力的更强大的指标.
- 这种新方法可以通过更好地量化流行病风险来加强公共卫生政策.
- 准确的风险评估对于管理具有季节性动态的传染病至关重要.
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