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评估长江三角洲城市聚居区的城市气候弹性:一种新的方法,将DPSIR模型和可持续发展目标整合在一起
Ran Yi1, Yanan Chen1, An Chen2
1Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China.
Journal of environmental management
|February 19, 2025
概括
这项研究制定了一个框架,以评估长江三角洲城市聚集区的城市气候弹性. 结果显示区域差异和政策和绿色覆盖面等关键驱动因素,突显了平衡发展的需要.
科学领域:
- 城市规划和气候适应
- 环境科学与可持续发展
- 区域经济发展 区域经济发展
背景情况:
- 由于气候变化和社会经济活动,城市面临着越来越多的与气候有关的威胁.
- 评估和增强城市气候适应能力对于减缓和适应气候变化至关重要.
- 现有的评估框架可能缺乏全面性和可复制性.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个逻辑,全面和可复制的城市气候弹性评估框架.
- 准确评估和增强城市气候弹性,以实现可持续的城市增长.
- 支持城市地区的气候变化适应战略.
主要方法:
- 使用驱动器-压力-状态-冲击响应 (DPSIR) 模型进行框架构建.
- 根据可持续发展目标 (SDGs) 选择的指标,包括政府的气候政策关注点.
- 应用空间自相关性,地理和时间加权回归,合协调和超级SBM模型.
主要成果:
- 城市气候适应性显示出显著的区域差异 (平均得分为0.256,年增长1.21%).
- 恢复力的空间相关性值得注意,高高集群扩大,低低集群收缩.
- 主要驱动因素包括水/森林覆盖面,气候政策关注和公共设施投资,显示出空间异质性.
- 合协调程度有所提高,但仍接近不平衡;技术和规模效率有所提高,但需要进一步提高.
结论:
- 城市气候弹性评估需要一个因果关系和可持续发展的视角.
- 调查结果为中国的政策制定者和国际气候适应倡议提供了宝贵的见解.
- 开发的框架提供了一种可复制的方法来评估和改善城市气候弹性.
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