对全球森林的压力:EAT-Lancet饮食下的植物油消费增加的影响
Maria Vincenza Chiriacò1, Nikolas Galli2, Melissa Latella1
1Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, CMCC Foundation, Lecce, Italy.
Global change biology
|February 20, 2025
概括
到2050年,全球植物油需求的增加可能会导致严重的森林砍伐和温室气体排放. 所有油的可持续生产,而不是棕油的替代品,是防止土地转型和保护生物多样性的关键.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 全球粮食生产推动了土地利用变化,生物多样性丧失和温室气体 (GHG) 排放.
- 粮食安全仍然是全球人口很大一部分面临的挑战.
- 为了减轻这些影响,EAT-Lancet委员会提出了一种行星饮食.
研究的目的:
- 评估到2050年预测的全球食品油需求对森林和温室气体排放的影响.
- 评估用其他植物油代替棕油的后果.
- 确定可持续植物油生产的战略.
主要方法:
- 用于模拟未来土地使用的空间显式土地分配算法.
- 分析到2050年全球人口为92亿的预计植物油需求.
- 在不同的消费场景下评估土地使用变化温室气体排放.
主要成果:
- 预计到2050年植物油需求将增加74%,需要3.17亿公,增长68%,可能导致1.15亿至1.2亿公的森林砍伐和1.163-1210万公的森林砍伐. 二氧化碳2/年排放量.
- 用其他油代替棕油增加了土地需求 (高达3.85亿公) 和排放 (高达1.525万). 碳排放量2/年) 的情况.
- EAT-Lancet饮食减少其他高影响性食物可能会抵消一些负面影响.
结论:
- 满足未来全球植物油需求带来了重大环境风险,包括森林砍伐和温室气体排放增加.
- 取代棕油不是一个可持续的解决方案,因为土地和排放足迹增加.
- 确保所有植物油的可持续生产和无森林砍伐的供应链对于环境保护至关重要.
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