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预计加拿大土著语言的发言人数和休眠风险
Michaël Boissonneault1,2, Adam Tallman3, Volker Gast3
1Department of demography and population sciences, Université de Montréal, Montreal, Canada.
Royal Society open science
|February 20, 2025
概括
加拿大的土著语言使用者面临着显著的下降,预计到2101年,16种语言将损失90%以上. 这凸显了迫切需要进行语言振兴工作,以维护语言多样性.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 语言学的语言学.
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
背景情况:
- 联合国教科文组织的"国际土著语言十年 (2022-2032) "强调了对全球语言多样性的重大威胁.
- 语音人数的未来演变以及土著语言的休眠风险在很大程度上仍未得到研究.
研究的目的:
- 预测加拿大27种土著语言的发言人数和休眠风险的变化.
- 评估这些语言的长期活力和潜在危.
主要方法:
- 利用了2001年的加拿大人口普查数据.
- 采用了概率人口预测模型.
- 分析了27种土著语言的发言人数和休眠风险.
主要成果:
- 2001年至2101年期间,16种语言的发言人数可能会减少90%以上.
- 在同一时期内,五种语言的休眠风险可能超过50%.
- 到2101年,九种语言可能占加拿大所有土著语言使用者的99%以上.
- 语言孤立和特定语言家族内的休眠风险较高.
结论:
- 人口预测显示,加拿大的土著语言面临严重危机.
- 这项研究强调了全球语言危的不均衡性质.
- 概率的人口预测是评估语言活力的宝贵工具,并为保护策略提供信息.
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