一个隔间模型来描述急性医疗住院患者通过医院的流动
1School of Mathematics, Statistics and Actuarial Science (SMSAS), University of Essex, Wivenhoe Park, Colchester CO4 3SQ, United Kingdom.
Heliyon
|February 20, 2025
概括
这项研究使用系统动态方法模拟医院患者流动,识别平衡状态. 该方法旨在描述患者在医院部门的移动,以更好地管理.
科学领域:
- 医疗保健管理的管理
- 系统工程 系统工程
- 数学建模的数学建模
背景情况:
- 有效的二级护理依赖于医院内的高效患者流量管理.
- 医院可以被概念化为多间隔系统,患者在各个部门之间过渡.
- 现有的模拟方法 (离散事件,基于代理) 需要大量的数据,往往无法获得.
研究的目的:
- 开发和描述医院患者流动的系统动态模型.
- 推导出表示患者运动的方程,这些方程代表病人的运动是隔间之间的相互连接的动态关系.
- 识别和分析医院患者流系统中的平衡状态.
主要方法:
- 采用系统动态方法,重点关注医院病房之间的净变化,而不是个别患者的跟踪.
- 数学方程式被推导出来描述控制患者流动的动态关系.
- 该模型确定了两个平衡状态:一个微不足道的状态 (空的医院) 和一个活跃的状态.
主要成果:
- 系统动态模型成功地描述了通过相互连接的医院部门的患者流动.
- 确定了两个平衡状态:空虚的医院和持续患者活动的状态.
- 该方法为数据密集型模拟方法提供了替代方案.
结论:
- 系统动态方法为分析和理解医院患者流动提供了一种可行的方法.
- 已识别的平衡状态为医院运营动态提供了洞察力.
- 计划使用英国医院病床使用数据进行进一步验证,以评估可概括性.
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