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在依赖国家多样化模型下,化石可以改善灭绝率估计
Bruno do Rosario Petrucci1, Michael R May2, Tracy A Heath1
1Department of Ecology, Evolutionary, and Organismal Biology, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011, USA.
概括
包括化石数据改善了进化生物学模型中的灭绝率估计. 然而,即使是化石,模型仍然可能错误地将中性特征与多样化率联系起来.
科学领域:
- 进化生物学是进化的生物学.
- 古生物学 古生物学 古生物学
- 宏观进化的研究.
背景情况:
- 国家依赖的物种化和灭绝 (SSE) 模型在进化生物学中被广泛使用.
- 这些模型主要利用现存物种的家族遗传树,限制了灭绝率估计的准确性.
- 如果没有观察到真正的特征,SSE模型可以错误地将中性特征与多样化率联系起来.
研究的目的:
- 调查将化石数据纳入二进制状态物种化和灭绝 (BiSSE) 模型的影响.
- 评估参数估计准确度的改进,特别是对于灭绝率.
- 评估对物种化和状态过渡率估计的影响.
主要方法:
- 将SSE模型与化石化出生死亡过程结合起来.
- 在BiSSE模型框架内应用贝叶斯推理.
- 从包括化石数据在内的分析中对参数估计进行了比较,与仅使用现存种类的数据进行比较.
主要成果:
- 包括化石数据显著提高了灭绝率估计的准确性.
- 种类和状态过渡率的估计仍然准确,并且没有被化石数据的包含负面影响.
- 即使使用化石数据,BiSSE模型也继续错误地推断多样化率与中性特征之间的相关性.
结论:
- 化石数据的整合提高了灭绝率估计在家族遗传学分析的可靠性.
- 虽然可以改善灭绝估计,但化石数据并不能解决BiSSE模型中中性特征相关性的问题.
- 未来的研究应该解决持续的挑战,即准确识别特征多样化率关联.
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