相关实验视频
Updated: May 27, 2025

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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
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根据使用WEAP模型在跨境河流盆地单边开发项目的水资源可持续性的评估
Davood Mahmoodzadeh1, Saeed Morid2, Hamed Ketabchi1
1Department of Water Engineering and Management, Tarbiat Modares University, PO Box 14155-336, Tehran, Iran.
Environmental science and pollution research international
|February 20, 2025
概括
土耳其的单边开发项目使叙利亚和伊拉克的水资源大幅减少,分别减少了59%和60%. 这种水文建模突出了下游水资源可持续性的风险,并呼吁制定有效的水利管理策略.
科学领域:
- 水文和水资源管理 水文和水资源管理
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 跨境水资源分析跨境水资源分析
背景情况:
- 跨境河流盆地因单方面开发项目而面临复杂的水资源挑战.
- 底格里斯-伯拉河跨境河流域 (TETR) 是一个关键区域,上游活动影响下游的水资源供应.
- 评估水利基础设施的水文和可持续性影响对于区域稳定至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用水文建模方法来评估TETR流域单边开发项目的影响.
- 在各种发展场景下评估供水和需求的可持续性.
- 对下游国家的不确定性下,分析与水资源管理相关的风险.
主要方法:
- 利用扩展的概念模型与水资源评估和规划 (WEAP) 模型集成用于水文模拟.
- 进行了41年的 (1979-2019) 建模期,纳入计划开发项目.
- 使用22个站的流量测量校准和验证模型,根据NSE和PBIAS标准评估性能.
主要成果:
- 土耳其的发展项目增加了土耳其的水资源可持续性,但降低了叙利亚的下游流量的59%,伊拉克的60%.
- 哈马尔湖在研究期间的流入量出现了显著的负面趋势,平均为209 m3/s.
- 风险分析表明,与土耳其相比,伊拉克和叙利亚的可持续性降低风险更高.
结论:
- 上游开发活动和减少的支流流入给下游地区带来了重大的社会,经济和环境风险.
- 该研究为跨境水资源管理决策者提供了有关水资源可持续性和风险的宝贵见解.
- 有效和可持续的水资源战略对于减轻共享河流盆地的单边开发影响至关重要.
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