一个半参数复合模型用于改变车道的车辆损坏严重程度与车道变化相关的碰撞
Ruifeng Gu1, Penglin Song1, N N Sze1
1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.
Accident; analysis and prevention
|February 20, 2025
概括
这项研究使用copula方法对车道更换事故中的车辆损伤进行了建模. 结果显示,不同的因素影响了改变与保持车辆的损害,突出了非线性关系.
科学领域:
- 交通安全研究 交通安全研究
- 事故分析 事故分析
- 运输工程 运输工程
背景情况:
- 在高速公路上经常发生车道变化,但会导致复杂的交互和碰撞.
- 车辆损坏相关性在变车道相关事故中很常见.
- 现有的车型往往忽视了车辆在此类事故中的相互依赖性.
研究的目的:
- 建议采用copula方法来建模车辆在变车道撞车时的损伤水平.
- 为了考虑变车道和保持车道的车辆之间的依赖.
- 分析各种因素与车辆损坏程度之间的关联.
主要方法:
- 采用了copula方法来模拟车辆损坏水平.
- 在异质数据中使用半参数估计.
- 应用了基于半参数的顺序逻辑模型.
- 分析了来自佛罗里达州奥兰多 (2016-2019) 的机数据.
主要成果:
- 在改变车道的车辆和保持车道的车辆受损的影响因素中发现了显著的差异.
- 揭示了车辆损坏,驾驶员年龄和撞车时间之间的非线性关系.
- 量化了道路环境,车辆属性,驾驶员特征和事故情况与损坏程度之间的关联.
结论:
- 配方方法有效地模拟了变车道撞车损伤中的依赖性.
- 在改变和保持车辆之间,影响车辆损坏的因素有很大差异.
- 司机的年龄和撞车时间与车辆损坏有非线性关联.
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