亚太经合组织气候中心多模型组合数据集用于季节性气候预测
Yoo-Bin Yhang1, Chang-Mook Lim2, Daeun Jeong2
1APEC Climate Center, Busan, Korea. ybyhang@apcc21.org.
Scientific data
|February 20, 2025
概括
亚太气候中心亚太气候中心
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 气象学 天气学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
背景情况:
- 多模型组合 (MME) 技术提高了气候信息的可靠性.
- 亚太气候中心 (APCC) 提供MME和个人模型数据.
- 准确的气候预测对于决策至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估APCCMME对关键气候变量的预测技能.
- 评估后预测技能 (1991-2010年) 和预测技能 (2019-2022年).
- 确定APCC中小企业季节性预测数据的可靠性.
主要方法:
- 使用1991-2010年APCCMME数据进行的Hindcast技能评估.
- 从2019-2022年使用运营模型套件进行预测技能评估.
- 分析的重点是2米温度,降水和海面温度.
主要成果:
- 后排验证表明,中小企业技能得到了适度但持续的改善.
- 从2019年到2022年,预测技能始终保持在一定程度上.
- APCC MME 证明了对关键气候变量的可靠预测能力.
结论:
- APCC MME 显示出一致和不断提高的预测技能.
- 来自APCC中小企业的季节性预测数据为降低风险和资源管理提供了宝贵的见解.
- 通过MME技术,为各个行业提供可靠的气候信息.
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