地缘政治风险和创新对全球国防股票回报率的影响
Oana Panazan1, Catalin Gheorghe1
1Department of Engineering and Industrial Management, Transilvania University of Brasov, Brasov, Romania.
PloS one
|February 21, 2025
概括
创新显著影响到国防股票的回报,而不是地缘政治风险 (GPR). 美国国防股提供了对冲,而中国公司在全球再武装中提供了多元化机会.
科学领域:
- 金融经济学 金融经济学
- 地缘政治风险分析分析
- 创新研究 研究 创新研究
背景情况:
- 地缘政治风险和创新是影响金融市场的关键因素.
- 国防工业的独特特征要求对这些影响进行具体分析.
- 对于投资者和政策制定者来说,了解这些影响至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 对地缘政治风险 (GPR) 和创新对国防工业股票回报的影响进行比较分析.
- 确定全球国防部门的区域差异和对冲机会.
- 为考虑全球再武装趋势的投资战略提供见解.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自17个国家的75家国防公司的每日数据集 (2014年1月至2024年3月).
- 采用波束连贯性和波束相差分析.
- 检查了不同公司和不同时间频率的时间变化的依赖关系.
主要成果:
- 创新对国防股票回报产生了比GPR更显著和更一致的影响.
- GPR事件具有异质的影响,在不确定时期 (例如,俄罗斯-乌克兰战争) 有集中影响.
- 美国国防股作为一个强大的对冲 (2021-2022);英国,德国和法国公司对GPR和创新表现出更高的敏感性.
结论:
- 创新是国防股表现的主要驱动因素,超过了地缘政治风险.
- 中国国防股提供多元化优势,在市场中断期间提供避难所.
- 建议采用替代投资策略,以跨越各种时间跨度来应对全球再武装趋势.
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