一种混合时间序列预测方法,集成了模糊集群和机器学习,以提高功耗预测
1Department of Information Systems College of Computer and Information Sciences , Jouf University , Sakaka, Saudi Arabia. kosalem@ju.edu.sa.
Scientific reports
|February 22, 2025
概括
摩洛哥泰图安的精确电力需求预测使用模糊集群和机器学习得到了改进. 这种混合方法通过提高电力消耗预测准确度来提高能源管理.
科学领域:
- 电气工程 电气工程
- 计算机科学 计算机科学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 准确的电力需求估计对于有效的能源管理至关重要.
- 电力消耗波动的地区需要先进的预测方法.
- 现有的模型可能会与电力使用的动态性质作斗争.
研究的目的:
- 通过改进电力需求预测,加强摩洛哥泰图安的能源管理.
- 评估整合模糊集群与机器学习时间序列模型的有效性.
- 确定最佳的机器学习模型,用于该地区的电力消耗预测.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自三个电力网络的52 417条记录的数据集.
- 应用模糊集群来预处理数据.
- 我们比较了五种机器学习模型:随机森林,支持矢量机,K-最近邻居,极端梯度增强和多层感知器.
- 使用根平均平方误差 (RMSE),平均绝对误差 (MAE) 和R2指标评估模型性能.
主要成果:
- 模糊集群集成显著提高了所有测试的机器学习模型的性能.
- 多层感知器模型与模糊集群相结合,取得了最好的结果.
- 通过混合方法实现了355.42的RMSE,246.43的MAE和0.9889的R2.
结论:
- 模糊集群和机器学习的混合方法为准确的电力消耗预测提供了原始和实用的解决方案.
- 这种方法提高了预测准确度,为能源管理提供了有价值的工具.
- 这些发现表明了先进数据分析在优化电网运营方面的潜力.
相关概念视频
01:15Power in a Three-Phase Circuit
285
Three-phase systems have two configurations: the wye and delta. A star configuration can be three or four wires; in a delta configuration, the components are connected in a closed loop. Instantaneous power refers to the power value at a precise moment, and in a balanced three-phase system, it is constant. This is because the sum of the instantaneous powers in the three phases remains steady over time, despite individual fluctuations, due to the symmetry and phase relationship. The total...
285
01:17Energy and Power Signals
240
In an electrical system with a resistor, voltage and current signals facilitate the measurement of power and energy across the resistor. For a continuous-time signal, the total energy over a time interval is defined as the integral of the square of the signal's magnitude over that interval. Mathematically, this is expressed as:
240
01:20Power Factor Correction
152
The power transmission to a factory involves the transfer of apparent power, a combination of active and reactive power. The power factor measures how effectively electrical power is converted into useful work output. The ratio of the real power (KW) that does the work to the apparent power (KVA) supplied to the circuit.
152
01:25Multimachine Stability
130
Multimachine stability analysis is crucial for understanding the dynamics and stability of power systems with multiple synchronous machines. The objective is to solve the swing equations for a network of M machines connected to an N-bus power system.
In analyzing the system, the nodal equations represent the relationship between bus voltages, machine voltages, and machine currents. The nodal equation is given by:
In analyzing the system, the nodal equations represent the relationship between bus voltages, machine voltages, and machine currents. The nodal equation is given by:
130
01:03Prediction Intervals
2.2K
The interval estimate of any variable is known as the prediction interval. It helps decide if a point estimate is dependable.
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.
2.2K
01:21Power System Three-Phase Short Circuits
72
Determining the subtransient fault current in a power system involves representing transformers by their leakage reactances, transmission lines by their equivalent series reactances, and synchronous machines as constant voltage sources behind their subtransient reactances. In this analysis, certain elements are excluded, such as winding resistances, series resistances, shunt admittances, delta-Y phase shifts, armature resistance, saturation, saliency, non-rotating impedance loads, and small...
72